WORK IN PROGRESS
- Fragmented Trade under Non-State Control (with Nathalie El-Bazzal, Marc-Arthur Diaye, & Jean-Charles Bricongne)
- CEPR ReCIPE Big Research Grant recipient
- The Impact of Conflicts on Foreign Investments: Evidence from Project-level Data (with Arti Grover)
- The rise of Viet Nam’s Solar Panel Industry: Inputs, FDI, and Spillovers (with Meng Yu Ngov, Trang Thu Tran, and Gaurav Nayyar)
- Refugees and entrepreneurship: Evidence from Ukrainians in Poland (with Cevat Giray Aksoy and Piotr Lewandowski)
- CEPR Discussion Paper No. 20854, Econ4UA WP 14, EBRD WP 310, IBS WP 07/2025
- Summaries: ifo INSTITUTE policy note (p.18), bluesky thread, VoxEU, King's
- Podcast: Policy Implications
- Slides (html)
PUBLICATIONS
- Geopolitical Fragmentation and Friendshoring Evidence from Project-Level Foreign Investment Data (with Arti Grover), forthcoming, Journal of Comparative Economics
- World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 11149
- Summary: VoxEU column, King's News Centre
- Trade Policy and Jobs in Vietnam: The Unintended Consequences of US-China tariffs (with Lorenzo Rotunno, Sanchary Roy, and Anri Sakakibara, forthcoming, World Bank Economic Review
- IMF Working Paper No. 2024/263, Other versions: August 2024, QPE Working Paper 2023-56 (other link), first went as The Unintended Consequences of Trump’s Trade War
- Summaries: King's College Blog, bluesky thread, Devdiscourse blog
- Cited in Testimony before the US-China Economic and Security Commission (Mar 2024)
- BA/Leverhulme Small Research Grant recipient
- Enemies of the people (with Gerhard Toews), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (2025)
- Media: la diaria, Novaya Gazeta, atlantico, tvrain.ru, pour l'éco, The Economist, ZME Science, LaPresse.ca, Mind the post
- Radio/Podcasts: ABC (Australia), A Correction (A Podcast), RTBF (Belgium), The Intelligence (Podcast from The Economist)
- Summaries: Twitter thread (PDF), FREE NETWORK Policy Brief, VoxEU, AEA Research highlights, VoxDev
- Old versions: QPE Working Paper 2020-20, NES Working Paper 279, Old version (Sep 2018), Slides decks: 1, 2, 3.
- Videos: Economics of Migration online seminar, AEA 2021, Memorial (in Russian)
- BA/Leverhulme Small Research Grant recipient
- FDI and wage inequality (with Marcio Cruz, Gaurav Nayyar, and Gerhard Toews), Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics (2023)
- Refugees, trade, and FDI (with Dany Bahar and Christopher Parsons), Oxford Review of Economic Policy (2022)
- Brookings blog, Box 2.1 in EBRD Transition Report 2022
- Tweets (PDF)
- Refugees and Foreign Direct Investment: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from US Resettlements (with Anna Maria Mayda, Christopher Parsons, and Han Pham), Journal of Development Economics (2022)
- WP version: CEPR Discussion Paper 14242, IZA DP 12860
- Twitter thread (PDF), VoxEU column, summary at fDiIntelligence (FT)
- Video of my virtual talk at the World Bank
- Resource discoveries, FDI bonanzas, and local multipliers: Evidence from Mozambique (with Gerhard Toews), Review of Economics and Statistics (2022)
- Previous versions: IGC Working Paper, OxCarre Research Paper 199, last version pdf
- Video of my talk at the IFC
- Media: IGC project, RES Media Briefing, World Bank Report (Box 1), voaportugues.com, IGC blog, The Conversation (picked up by the Mail and Guardian and CNBC Africa), globaldev, Oxford CSAE blog, Forbes, VoxDev
- The oil nouveau riche and arms imports, Journal of African Economies (2021)
- WP version: World Bank Policy Research Working Paper WPS 9374
- Media: King's summary, Blog at substack, World Bank Report on Africa's resource future, Video explainer for Faculti
- The imperial roots of global trade (with Gunes Gokmen and Wessel Vermeulen), Journal of Economic Growth (2020)
- Dutch Disease Resistance: Evidence from Indonesian Firms (with Jim Cust and Torfinn Harding), Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (2019)
- Media: Inside Indonesia
- Ethnic Minorities and Trade: The Soviet Union as a Natural Experiment (with Gunes Gokmen and Elena Nickishina), The World Economy (2018)
- Media: FREE Policy Brief
- Migrant Networks and Trade: The Vietnamese Boat People as a Natural Experiment (with Chris Parsons), Economic Journal (2018)
- There goes gravity: eBay and the death of distance (with Andreas Lendle, Marcelo Olarreaga, and Simon Schropp), Economic Journal (2016)
- Sidekick: eBay's anatomy, Economics Letters (2013)
- Media: Bloomberg, VoxEU.org, NewStatesman, The Economist, IDG.se (Swedish), DisCo, RES Media Briefing, World Bank 2016 World Development Report, OECD Observer, President Obama's Weekly Internet Address (around 0:55), RSAI Newsletter
- Israel's open-secret trade (with Lorenzo Rotunno), Review of World Economics (2017)
- Media: AMSE DialogEco, Le Monde
- Production fragmentation, upstreamness and value added (with Tadashi Ito) , Journal of the Japanese and International Economies (2016)
- The trade consequences of pricey oil (with David von Below), IMF Economic Review (2016)
- Media: VoxEU, WSJ, WEF, austrade.gov.au
- Heckscher-Ohlin: Evidence from virtual value-added flows (with Tadashi Ito and Lorenzo Rotunno), Review of International Economics (2016)
- Internet technology and the extensive margin of trade: Evidence from eBay in emerging economies (with Andreas Lendle), Review of Development Economics (2015)
- Illegal trade in natural resources: Evidence from missing exports, International Economics (2015)
- Quota-hopping in-bond diversion (with Lorenzo Rotunno), Economic Inquiry (2014)
- Race-to-the-bottom tariff cutting, Review of International Economics (2014)
- Media: Trade Diversion
- The rise and fall of (Chinese) African apparel exports (with Lorenzo Rotunno and Zheng Wang), Journal of Development Economics (2013)
- Media: Financial Times (1, 2), Daily Maverick, Trade Diversion, CSAE blog, VoxEU.org, African Business
- Chinese networks and tariff evasion (with Lorenzo Rotunno), Extras available. The World Economy (2012)
- Media: VoxEU.org.
- How migrant networks facilitate trade: Evidence from Swiss exports, Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (2012)
- Media: "Les Diasporas Commerciales", Le Temps, 2 Feb 2009
POLICY BLOGS and NOTES
- VoxDevLit on FDI and Development (Institutions, MNEs, and extraction sectors)
- Uncovering kleptocratic behaviour in private jet flights (with Mamadou Sacko & Ines Conde). KCL blog. Tweets.
- Quantifying foreign influence on policy and public opinion can be difficult, but a new media measure could help fill the gaps (with Mamadou Sacko on LSE USAPP blog)
- Brexit will inevitably hurt UK exports, slowly but surely (LSE Brexit Blog and LSE Business Review) - picked up by the FT.
- Le Quebec doit être ouvert aux nouvelles technologies et connecté au reste du monde (Huffington Post)
SUNDRY PAPERS and NOTES
- Wouldn't it be nice (to have a bit more inflation)? (obscure paper neither funny nor robust. I think it's robust though)
- Economic growth and the quality of music
- Selling shares of yourself
- Ranking economics departments
- Direct flights or cheaper options?
- Blog posts on smuggling
